dr.kol
11333
Now it's getting interesting...
Jul 13, 2015,13:37 PM
My crystal ball is very bright when it comes to oil trade and oil tankers. However, it's a bit foggy when speaking about watches.
What did Patek do i.e. during WWII? They produced steel Calatrava. In the case of Patek, their highest margins are in Grand Complications. Think about 5170. Add a small perpetual calendar module and the price doubles. Do the costs double - for sure not!
Think about crisis watches like 5960/1A. You remove the platinum case worth of perhaps 2k and you drop the price with over 10 times the material. Simsalabim!
I am sure that Patek will survive the crises. My guess is, however, that in the years to come they will reduce their staff as well as the annual production. We will see more of crisis watches in steel that give the opportunity to new people acquire a Patek. Then on the other hand, they will add the Grand Complications like 5370P. This watch is relatively "affordable" taking into account its placement in the collections (I'm thinking about one).
But the market will be tough to the "fashionable premium brands". There are brands where 70% of the "value" is vaporising when walking out from the store.
I think the London pieces of 5 each are a way of testing if the market can take watches costing the auction prices. According to what I have heard, it does.
I believe we will see simpler basic Pateks, more Grand Complications especially on the lower end of the category. I also believe that Patek will feed the collectors more with anniversary and special edition pieces. I also believe that the manufacturer is turning more humble and listening their clients by fulfilling special wishes. Finally I believe that when the market is getting very difficult, we can buy more Patek Philippe accessories. What about getting your own PP briefcase made to Hermes quality?
Best, Kari